Ronnie's Bolametrics system is a weighted statistical method that measures a team's overall productivity. By importing data from the internet, Ronnie tabulates the total number of offensive events the team creates in each game (for example, Shots and Shots on goal) minus the total number of offensive events per game the team allows to be created against it. Each event is weighted in terms of its relative "worth" in goals.
The weights for each category are derived by looking at a range of variables (statistical categories) and subjecting them to simple regression analysis
to identify those stats which were the strongest measure of a team's
strength relative to other teams. Where available on the internet, Ronnie's Bolametrics considers and weighs the
following variables:
Home
Goals, Away Goals, Home Wins, Away Wins, Draws, Losses, Shots, Shots on
Goals, Quality Shots on Goal, Corners For, Corners Against, Goals
Against, Shots Against, Shots on Goal Against, and Recent Form.
Not all of the above data are easily available on the net though. Sometimes, there may be a few missing pieces of jigsaw to the puzzle. Despite the imperfection, the data is organized on a best endeavor basis. These variables are then applied into a mathematical model known as a Poisson Distribution. This is a model that expresses the chance of a number of events occurring within a fixed period of time, if these occur with a known average rate. For example, it can be used to predict the number of traffic accidents on the PIE at given intervals, amount of rainfall at given precipitation, number of lung cancer at given population of smokers. It can also be used as a tool to optimize MRT train arrival timings. Soccer is also basically a Poisson process, in the sense that every team has its own average rate for league points, time of first goal scored/conceded, number of goals scored/missed, shots attempted, etc.
This system does not use anything like my opinion or any tipster's or sportwriter's opinion. All I do to generate the probabilities is to input details of the match to be predicted and run the EXCEL program. The purpose of Bolametrics is not to ask you to simply pick the likeliest scoreline or the likely winner, but to compare my odds with the bookie's odds - to check if you are shortchanged, or getting enough “value” for your money.
I have no inside information or access to bookmaker's data and I am not trying to sell or promote my selection system. In summary I am a relative amateur and one step above the average punter. If you decide to follow my picks, you should be aware that you are doing so at your own risk. Good Luck!
Probability Estimation For 06/02/2011 (Sunday)
| Estimated Probabilities | Which is | Fraction | |||||
| Match Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Under | Over | Value Bet? | To Bet |
| Newcastle vs Sydney | 36% | 26% | 37% | 46% | 54% | ||
| Perth vs Gold Coast | 30% | 27% | 43% | 34% | 66% | ||
| Chelsea vs Liverpool | 67% | 15% | 18% | 49% | 51% | Home | 0.01 |
| West Ham vs Birmingham | 40% | 25% | 35% | 73% | 27% | Away | 0.01 |
| Swansea vs Cardiff | 38% | 22% | 40% | 68% | 32% | ||
| Auxerre vs Lille | 25% | 31% | 44% | 34% | 66% | ||
| Lyon vs Bordeaux | 57% | 18% | 24% | 73% | 27% | ||
| Toulouse vs Monaco | 64% | 24% | 12% | 41% | 59% | Home | 0.02 |
| Freiburg vs Frankfurt | 50% | 32% | 18% | 48% | 52% | Home | 0.01 |
| Hamburger vs St. Pauli | 57% | 30% | 13% | 27% | 73% | ||
| Bologna vs Catania | 55% | 26% | 19% | 70% | 30% | ||
| Brescia vs Bari | 40% | 25% | 34% | 48% | 52% | ||
| Genoa vs AC Milan | 17% | 32% | 51% | 54% | 46% | ||
| Inter vs AS Roma | 45% | 29% | 26% | 65% | 35% | ||
| Lazio vs Chievo | 57% | 31% | 12% | 74% | 26% | ||
| Lecce vs Palermo | 27% | 40% | 33% | 55% | 45% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Napoli vs Cesena | 78% | 18% | 4% | 47% | 53% | ||
Probability Estimation For 05/02/2011 (Saturday)
| Estimated Probabilities | Which is | Fraction | |||||
| Match Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Under | Over | Value Bet? | To Bet |
| Aston Villa vs Fulham | 52% | 18% | 30% | 41% | 59% | ||
| Everton vs Blackpool | 55% | 24% | 21% | 35% | 65% | ||
| Manchester City vs West Brom | 55% | 25% | 20% | 73% | 27% | ||
| Newcastle vs Arsenal | 23% | 31% | 46% | 53% | 47% | ||
| Stoke vs Sunderland | 46% | 23% | 31% | 48% | 52% | ||
| Tottenham vs Bolton | 60% | 23% | 17% | 48% | 52% | ||
| Wigan vs Blackburn | 44% | 28% | 28% | 39% | 61% | ||
| Wolves vs Manchester Utd | 16% | 33% | 51% | 62% | 38% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Burnley vs Norwich | 39% | 32% | 29% | 59% | 41% | ||
| Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough | 43% | 30% | 27% | 35% | 65% | ||
| Ipswich vs Sheffield Utd | 49% | 29% | 22% | 38% | 62% | ||
| Leeds vs Coventry | 51% | 28% | 21% | 64% | 36% | ||
| Leicester vs Barnsley | 53% | 20% | 27% | 39% | 61% | ||
| Millwall vs Doncaster | 55% | 22% | 24% | 67% | 33% | ||
| Nottingham vs Watford | 48% | 24% | 27% | 43% | 57% | ||
| Portsmouth vs Derby | 41% | 31% | 28% | 45% | 55% | ||
| Preston vs Bristol City | 37% | 21% | 42% | 60% | 40% | ||
| Scunthorpe vs Hull | 41% | 24% | 35% | 53% | 47% | ||
| Brest vs Nancy | 38% | 30% | 33% | 73% | 27% | Away | 0.01 |
| Caen vs Lorient | 32% | 28% | 40% | 40% | 60% | Away | 0.01 |
| Lens vs Valenciennes | 34% | 27% | 39% | 30% | 70% | Away | 0.01 |
| Marseille vs Arles | 72% | 14% | 14% | 54% | 46% | ||
| Montpellier vs St. Etienne | 40% | 25% | 35% | 69% | 31% | ||
| Nice vs Sochaux | 50% | 31% | 20% | 26% | 74% | Home | 0.01 |
| Rennes vs PSG | 38% | 36% | 26% | 31% | 69% | ||
| Hannover vs Wolfsburg | 38% | 21% | 41% | 56% | 44% | ||
| Hoffenheim vs Kaiserslautern | 38% | 35% | 28% | 42% | 58% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Köln vs Bayern | 12% | 30% | 58% | 41% | 59% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Mainz vs Bremen | 43% | 19% | 37% | 33% | 67% | ||
| Moenchengladbach vs Stuttgart | 41% | 24% | 35% | 30% | 70% | Home | 0.01 |
| Nurnberg vs Leverkusen | 22% | 38% | 40% | 61% | 39% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Almeria vs Espanyol | 39% | 25% | 37% | 67% | 33% | ||
| Ath. Bilbao vs Gijon | 55% | 34% | 11% | 53% | 47% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Barcelona vs Atl. Madrid | 79% | 15% | 6% | 68% | 32% | ||
| Getafe vs La Coruna | 59% | 20% | 20% | 46% | 54% | Home | 0.01 |
| Osasuna vs Mallorca | 36% | 36% | 28% | 61% | 39% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Zaragoza vs Santander | 43% | 33% | 24% | 68% | 32% | ||
Probability Estimation For 02/02/2011 (Wednesday)
| Probabilities | Which is | Fraction | |||||
| Match Fixture | Home | Draw | Away | Under | Over | Value Bet? | To Bet |
| Birmingham vs Manchester City | 14% | 33% | 53% | 57% | 43% | ||
| Blackburn vs Tottenham | 27% | 27% | 46% | 55% | 45% | ||
| Blackpool vs West Ham | 42% | 24% | 34% | 66% | 34% | ||
| Bolton vs Wolves | 42% | 32% | 26% | 51% | 49% | ||
| Fulham vs Newcastle | 37% | 35% | 28% | 45% | 55% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Liverpool vs Stoke | 51% | 28% | 21% | 61% | 39% | ||
| AS Roma vs Brescia | 74% | 23% | 3% | 54% | 46% | ||
| Cesena vs Catania | 35% | 40% | 25% | 40% | 60% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Chievo vs Napoli | 28% | 38% | 34% | 41% | 59% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Fiorentina vs Genoa | 40% | 42% | 18% | 30% | 70% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Palermo vs Juventus | 43% | 30% | 28% | 30% | 70% | ||
| Parma vs Lecce | 59% | 35% | 6% | 33% | 67% | Draw | 0.01 |
| Sampdoria vs Cagliari | 46% | 25% | 29% | 39% | 61% | ||
| Udinese vs Bologna | 74% | 16% | 11% | 66% | 34% | Home | 0.02 |
GOLD COAST UTD vs ADELAIDE
| Bolametric Distribution of Expected Scores | ||||||||
| (Figures have been rounded to their nearest integer for easy viewing) | ||||||||
| Probabiities | ||||||||
| (in %age) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ≥ 5 | ||
| 0 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| The table above lists the probabilities of expected scorelines. | ||||||||
| For example, the probability of 1-0 is 11% & 1-1 is 14%. | ||||||||
| The scores are then summed up to derive the total chance of a HOME WIN, DRAW & AWAY WIN. | ||||||||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | ||||||
| 24% | 33% | 43% | ||||||
| Home | Away | |||||||
| Form | Form | |||||||
| Form Index | 1.12 | 1.18 | Under 2.5 | 68% | Over 2.5 | 32% | ||
| *Form index below 1 means the team is off-form recently, above 1 means it's on-form recently. | ||||||||
| Ronnie's Odds VS Singapore Pools' Odds | ||||||||
| INSTRUCTIONS: Simply compare Singapore Pools' odds with Ronnie's Odds. | ||||||||
| If their odds higher than Ronnie's, while the chance for it to happen | ||||||||
| isn't too low, then this may be considered as a “VALUE BET”. Even if you are betting | ||||||||
| with online bookies like SBOBET or Betinternet, the same concept & principle applies. | ||||||||
| Match No. | Kick-off Time | Match | ||||||
| 4505 | 17/10/10 | GOLD COAST UTD vs ADELAIDE | ||||||
| 2.00PM | A LEAGUE | |||||||
| Bet Type 01 - 1 x 2 | ||||||||
| GOLD COAST UTD | DRAW | ADELAIDE | ||||||
| Spools | 2.35 | 3.05 | 2.67 | |||||
| Ronnie | 4.10 | 3.05 | 2.33 | |||||
| Edge | -32% | -0% | 9% | |||||
| VALUE BET | VALUE BET | VALUE BET | ||||||
| © Ronnie Ng, 2010. All rights reserved. IF YOU WISH TO | ||||||||
| SHARE THIS PICK WITH OTHERS, JUST DIRECT THEM TO | ||||||||
| THIS BLOG. DO NOT CLAIM MY SELECTION AS YOUR OWN! | ||||||||
| RESPECT THE TIME & EFFORT I PUT INTO PRODUCING IT!! | ||||||||
ROMA vs GENOA
| Bolametric Distribution of Expected Scores | ||||||||
| (Figures have been rounded to their nearest integer for easy viewing) | ||||||||
| Probabiities | ||||||||
| (in %age) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ≥ 5 | ||
| 0 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 17 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| The table above lists the probabilities of expected scorelines. | ||||||||
| For example, the probability of 1-0 is 13% & 1-1 is 14%. | ||||||||
| The scores are then summed up to derive the total chance of a HOME WIN, DRAW & AWAY WIN. | ||||||||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | ||||||
| 26% | 36% | 38% | ||||||
| Home | Away | |||||||
| Form | Form | |||||||
| Form Index | 0.89 | 1.01 | Under 2.5 | 75% | Over 2.5 | 25% | ||
| *Form index below 1 means the team is off-form recently, above 1 means it's on-form recently. | ||||||||
| Ronnie's Odds VS Singapore Pools' Odds | ||||||||
| INSTRUCTIONS: Simply compare Singapore Pools' odds with Ronnie's Odds. | ||||||||
| If their odds higher than Ronnie's, while the chance for it to happen | ||||||||
| isn't too low, then this may be considered as a “VALUE BET”. Even if you are betting | ||||||||
| with online bookies like SBOBET or Betinternet, the same concept & principle applies. | ||||||||
| Match No. | Kick-off Time | Match | ||||||
| 1302 | 17/10/10 | ROMA vs GENOA | ||||||
| 2.45AM | ITALIAN LEAGUE | |||||||
| Bet Type 01 - 1 x 2 | ||||||||
| ROMA | DRAW | GENOA | ||||||
| Spools | 1.75 | 3.20 | 4.10 | |||||
| Ronnie | 3.79 | 2.78 | 2.66 | |||||
| Edge | -72% | 7% | 18% | |||||
| VALUE BET | VALUE BET | VALUE BET | ||||||
| © Ronnie Ng, 2010. All rights reserved. IF YOU WISH TO | ||||||||
| SHARE THIS PICK WITH OTHERS, JUST DIRECT THEM TO | ||||||||
| THIS BLOG. DO NOT CLAIM MY SELECTION AS YOUR OWN! | ||||||||
| RESPECT THE TIME & EFFORT I PUT INTO PRODUCING IT!! | ||||||||
ULSAN vs SEOUL
| Bolametric Distribution of Expected Scores | ||||||||
| (Figures have been rounded to their nearest integer for easy viewing) | ||||||||
| Probabiities | ||||||||
| (in %age) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ≥ 5 | ||
| 0 | 14 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| The table above lists the probabilities of expected scorelines. | ||||||||
| For example, the probability of 1-0 is 17% & 1-1 is 14%. | ||||||||
| The scores are then summed up to derive the total chance of a HOME WIN, DRAW & AWAY WIN. | ||||||||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | ||||||
| 47% | 32% | 21% | ||||||
| Home | Away | |||||||
| Form | Form | |||||||
| Form Index | 1.35 | 1.07 | Under 2.5 | 68% | Over 2.5 | 32% | ||
| *Form index below 1 means the team is off-form recently, above 1 means it's on-form recently. | ||||||||
| Ronnie's Odds VS Singapore Pools' Odds | ||||||||
| INSTRUCTIONS: Simply compare Singapore Pools' odds with Ronnie's Odds. | ||||||||
| If their odds higher than Ronnie's, while the chance for it to happen | ||||||||
| isn't too low, then this may be considered as a “VALUE BET”. Even if you are betting | ||||||||
| with online bookies like SBOBET or Betinternet, the same concept & principle applies. | ||||||||
| Match No. | Kick-off Time | Match | ||||||
| 4106 | 17/10/10 | ULSAN vs SEOUL | ||||||
| 12.00PM | K LEAGUE | |||||||
| Bet Type 01 - 1 x 2 | ||||||||
| ULSAN | DRAW | SEOUL | ||||||
| Spools | 2.77 | 3.00 | 2.30 | |||||
| Ronnie | 2.14 | 3.11 | 4.75 | |||||
| Edge | 17% | -2% | -40% | |||||
| VALUE BET | VALUE BET | VALUE BET | ||||||
| © Ronnie Ng, 2010. All rights reserved. IF YOU WISH TO | ||||||||
| SHARE THIS PICK WITH OTHERS, JUST DIRECT THEM TO | ||||||||
| THIS BLOG. DO NOT CLAIM MY SELECTION AS YOUR OWN! | ||||||||
| RESPECT THE TIME & EFFORT I PUT INTO PRODUCING IT!! | ||||||||
SCHLK 04 vs STUTTGART
| Bolametric Distribution of Expected Scores | ||||||||
| (Figures have been rounded to their nearest integer for easy viewing) | ||||||||
| Probabiities | ||||||||
| (in %age) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ≥ 5 | ||
| 0 | 16 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| The table above lists the probabilities of expected scorelines. | ||||||||
| For example, the probability of 1-0 is 16% & 1-1 is 14%. | ||||||||
| The scores are then summed up to derive the total chance of a HOME WIN, DRAW & AWAY WIN. | ||||||||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | ||||||
| 40% | 34% | 25% | ||||||
| Home | Away | |||||||
| Form | Form | |||||||
| Form Index | 0.84 | 0.81 | Under 2.5 | 72% | Over 2.5 | 28% | ||
| *Form index below 1 means the team is off-form recently, above 1 means it's on-form recently. | ||||||||
| Ronnie's Odds VS Singapore Pools' Odds | ||||||||
| INSTRUCTIONS: Simply compare Singapore Pools' odds with Ronnie's Odds. | ||||||||
| If their odds higher than Ronnie's, while the chance for it to happen | ||||||||
| isn't too low, then this may be considered as a “VALUE BET”. Even if you are betting | ||||||||
| with online bookies like SBOBET or Betinternet, the same concept & principle applies. | ||||||||
| Match No. | Kick-off Time | Match | ||||||
| 1102 | 16/10/10 | SCHLK 04 vs STUTTGART | ||||||
| 9.30PM | GERMAN LEAGUE | |||||||
| Bet Type 01 - 1 x 2 | ||||||||
| SCHLK 04 | DRAW | STUTTGART | ||||||
| Spools | 1.90 | 3.20 | 3.45 | |||||
| Ronnie | 2.48 | 2.91 | 3.94 | |||||
| Edge | -26% | 5% | -5% | |||||
| VALUE BET | VALUE BET | VALUE BET | ||||||
| © Ronnie Ng, 2010. All rights reserved. IF YOU WISH TO | ||||||||
| SHARE THIS PICK WITH OTHERS, JUST DIRECT THEM TO | ||||||||
| THIS BLOG. DO NOT CLAIM MY SELECTION AS YOUR OWN! | ||||||||
| RESPECT THE TIME & EFFORT I PUT INTO PRODUCING IT!! | ||||||||
JEONBUK vs JEJU
| Bolametric Distribution of Expected Scores | ||||||||
| (Figures have been rounded to their nearest integer for easy viewing) | ||||||||
| Probabiities | ||||||||
| (in %age) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ≥ 5 | ||
| 0 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| The table above lists the probabilities of expected scorelines. | ||||||||
| For example, the probability of 1-0 is 10% & 1-1 is 14%. | ||||||||
| The scores are then summed up to derive the total chance of a HOME WIN, DRAW & AWAY WIN. | ||||||||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | ||||||
| 23% | 32% | 44% | ||||||
| Home | Away | |||||||
| Form | Form | |||||||
| Form Index | 0.78 | 0.98 | Under 2.5 | 67% | Over 2.5 | 33% | ||
| *Form index below 1 means the team is off-form recently, above 1 means it's on-form recently. | ||||||||
| Ronnie's Odds VS Singapore Pools' Odds | ||||||||
| INSTRUCTIONS: Simply compare Singapore Pools' odds with Ronnie's Odds. | ||||||||
| If their odds higher than Ronnie's, while the chance for it to happen | ||||||||
| isn't too low, then this may be considered as a “VALUE BET”. Even if you are betting | ||||||||
| with online bookies like SBOBET or Betinternet, the same concept & principle applies. | ||||||||
| Match No. | Kick-off Time | Match | ||||||
| 4104 | 16/10/10 | JEONBUK vs JEJU | ||||||
| 6.00PM | K LEAGUE | |||||||
| Bet Type 01 - 1 x 2 | ||||||||
| JEONBUK | DRAW | JEJU | ||||||
| Spools | 2.33 | 3.10 | 2.65 | |||||
| Ronnie | 4.29 | 3.09 | 2.25 | |||||
| Edge | -34% | 0% | 11% | |||||
| VALUE BET | VALUE BET | VALUE BET | ||||||
| © Ronnie Ng, 2010. All rights reserved. IF YOU WISH TO | ||||||||
| SHARE THIS PICK WITH OTHERS, JUST DIRECT THEM TO | ||||||||
| THIS BLOG. DO NOT CLAIM MY SELECTION AS YOUR OWN! | ||||||||
| RESPECT THE TIME & EFFORT I PUT INTO PRODUCING IT!! | ||||||||
VEGALTA SENDAI vs FC TOKYO
| Bolametric Distribution of Expected Scores | ||||||||
| (Figures have been rounded to their nearest integer for easy viewing) | ||||||||
| Probabiities | ||||||||
| (in %age) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ≥ 5 | ||
| 0 | 17 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| The table above lists the probabilities of expected scorelines. | ||||||||
| For example, the probability of 1-0 is 16% & 1-1 is 15%. | ||||||||
| The scores are then summed up to derive the total chance of a HOME WIN, DRAW & AWAY WIN. | ||||||||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | ||||||
| 36% | 36% | 28% | ||||||
| Home | Away | |||||||
| Form | Form | |||||||
| Form Index | 1.07 | 0.99 | Under 2.5 | 74% | Over 2.5 | 26% | ||
| *Form index below 1 means the team is off-form recently, above 1 means it's on-form recently. | ||||||||
| Ronnie's Odds VS Singapore Pools' Odds | ||||||||
| INSTRUCTIONS: Simply compare Singapore Pools' odds with Ronnie's Odds. | ||||||||
| If their odds higher than Ronnie's, while the chance for it to happen | ||||||||
| isn't too low, then this may be considered as a “VALUE BET”. Even if you are betting | ||||||||
| with online bookies like SBOBET or Betinternet, the same concept & principle applies. | ||||||||
| Match No. | Kick-off Time | Match | ||||||
| 3102 | 16/10/10 | VEGALTA SENDAI vs FC TOKYO | ||||||
| 1.00PM | J LEAGUE | |||||||
| Bet Type 01 - 1 x 2 | ||||||||
| VEGALTA SENDAI | DRAW | FC TOKYO | ||||||
| Spools | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.77 | |||||
| Ronnie | 2.77 | 2.81 | 3.54 | |||||
| Edge | -15% | 5% | -12% | |||||
| VALUE BET | VALUE BET | VALUE BET | ||||||
| © Ronnie Ng, 2010. All rights reserved. IF YOU WISH TO | ||||||||
| SHARE THIS PICK WITH OTHERS, JUST DIRECT THEM TO | ||||||||
| THIS BLOG. DO NOT CLAIM MY SELECTION AS YOUR OWN! | ||||||||
| RESPECT THE TIME & EFFORT I PUT INTO PRODUCING IT!! | ||||||||
MELBOURNE VICT vs SYDNEY FC
| Bolametric Distribution of Expected Scores | ||||||||
| (Figures have been rounded to their nearest integer for easy viewing) | ||||||||
| Probabiities | ||||||||
| (in %age) | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ≥ 5 | ||
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ≥ 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| The table above lists the probabilities of expected scorelines. | ||||||||
| For example, the probability of 1-0 is 12% & 1-1 is 12%. | ||||||||
| The scores are then summed up to derive the total chance of a HOME WIN, DRAW & AWAY WIN. | ||||||||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | ||||||
| 60% | 25% | 15% | ||||||
| Home | Away | |||||||
| Form | Form | |||||||
| Form Index | 1 | 1 | Under 2.5 | 54% | Over 2.5 | 46% | ||
| *Form index below 1 means the team is off-form recently, above 1 means it's on-form recently. | ||||||||
| Ronnie's Odds VS Singapore Pools' Odds | ||||||||
| INSTRUCTIONS: Simply compare Singapore Pools' odds with Ronnie's Odds. | ||||||||
| If their odds higher than Ronnie's, while the chance for it to happen | ||||||||
| isn't too low, then this may be considered as a “VALUE BET”. Even if you are betting | ||||||||
| with online bookies like SBOBET or Betinternet, the same concept & principle applies. | ||||||||
| Match No. | Kick-off Time | Match | ||||||
| 4502 | 16/10/10 | MELBOURNE VICT vs SYDNEY FC | ||||||
| 3.45PM | A LEAGUE | |||||||
| Bet Type 01 - 1 x 2 | ||||||||
| MELBOURNE VICT | DRAW | SYDNEY FC | ||||||
| Spools | 2.05 | 3.15 | 3.10 | |||||
| Ronnie | 1.67 | 3.93 | 6.88 | |||||
| Edge | 22% | -9% | -26% | |||||
| VALUE BET | VALUE BET | VALUE BET | ||||||
| © Ronnie Ng, 2010. All rights reserved. IF YOU WISH TO | ||||||||
| SHARE THIS PICK WITH OTHERS, JUST DIRECT THEM TO | ||||||||
| THIS BLOG. DO NOT CLAIM MY SELECTION AS YOUR OWN! | ||||||||
| RESPECT THE TIME & EFFORT I PUT INTO PRODUCING IT!! | ||||||||
Ronnie is also known as Fahrenheit in the online community, ie. Asian Football Forum.
MY SOCCER PICKS
ARE ABSOLUTELY
FREE, BUT.........
First of all, notice that i do not include any banner ads from bookmakers on this blog. I do not participate in any of your losses nor am i financially tied to any bookie. The only banner ad that you currently see on the top of this blog is compulsorily supplied by the web host (viviti.com) itself, which does not make me richer whether you click on it or not.
My soccer picks are ABSOLUTELY FREE & i derive no direct income from helping you win. PLEASE DON'T CONFUSE ME WITH A TIPPING SERVICE! Every recommendation is a pick WHICH I ALSO BET ON IT MYSELF. If i am not risking my own money on the pick, why would i recommend it to you & let you sink into the red sea alone? Since I DO NOT offer any PAID TIP SERVICE nor charge any subscription fees for my picks and analyses, there are several ways you can do to help support this blog & keep it in continuous operation:
(1) TELL YOUR FRIENDS ABOUT THIS BLOG: I am
aware that some people relay my picks to their friends & claim it as
their own KT, without giving due credit to me & this blog. Some
unscrupulous ones even go to the extent of re-posting my picks in other
forums, or operate their own tipping services based on my picks. I think
if you choose to follow my picks, you have a moral duty to uphold the
integrity of my picks, by giving credit where it's due. If you feel that
i am doing a good job, i encourage you to tell your friends to visit
this blog and/or follow me on Facebook & Twitter.
(2) PURCHASE BOLAMETRICS MERCHANDISE: I have included a merchandise section on this blog, even though i do not anticipate a positive response for this. Merchandising is certainly not as lucrative as operating a paid tipping service. As a blogger from another site succinctly explains, the profit margin of each item is not even a cost of curry puff you bought from Old Chang Kee. However, your purchase of the listed merchandise on the BOLAMETRICS BLOG SHOP will reflect your appreciation & reciprocation in helping to sustain the operation of this blog.
(3) MAKE A DONATION: Please scroll further down for further details on this topic.
I Eat My Own Cooking
Whenever I post a recommendation, you can rest assured that I also bet on it myself. As such, when you choose to follow my recommendation, your winnings will move in lockstep with mine. Moreover, when you lose, you should be able to derive some solace from the fact that my financial suffering is proportional to yours. WHEN YOU SUFFER, RONNIE SUFFERS. WHEN RONNIE PROSPERS, YOU ALSO PROSPER.
Support Ronnie's Vampire Fiction~!!!
A great deal of time and effort goes in to the researching and compiling of probabilities & odds published within this blog. I am happy to share this information freely and I am sure that used consistently you will generate regular profit. I would ask that you consider rewarding my hard work as and when you can. Show Your Appreciation & Buy a Copy of My Novel~!
For details, please visit my promotion blog:
This book was written by me in 2008, but it is currently out of print & unavailable in bookstores. This is because the distributor responsible for marketing my book has been declared bankrupt & the books were taken off the shelves & returned to me. If you have won some money from my soccer picks & wish to express your gratitude, you may do so by purchasing my book for $18.88 per copy, incl. postage (for Sg residents only). An autographed copy will cost you $20.
Interested parties may email me at crumpiteer@gmail.com Thanks!
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Testimonials
Bro Ronnie had brought the whole Soccer betting to a new level by analysis if the odds is worth to punt or not, and managed to use certain mathematical formula to analyze the likely score / winning. This brings a new level of confidence to bet on underdogs. As most punters will know that the majority bet on favorites and / or their favorite - fans team because nobody would want to lost on betting, and despite he is not a gambler god that has 100% sure win tips, but he had helped himself and many other people to win in the long run / overall stake. That is why I felt he has raised soccer betting into a true investment, with scientific reasoning to explain to followers on the reason to bet on it. Well, I believe he can use this strategy / mathematical formula which I do not actually know what it is called to other areas of betting, such as motor car or Horse racing, which currently he does not do so. Only if some of the visitors here can master such skill and applied it to the areas, it will proved to be very informative in the world of "gambling" / investment.
-Samuel Lee
I do not really like betting
on football as my knowledge is shallow but after following Bro Ronnie in
his analysis made me realize that winning is possible.
His analysis
is very indepth and using his system has generated CONSISTENT profits
for me. Yeah ! there are losing times but the risk reward ratio is small
that i am able to place the bets with confidence. Analysing stuff
is really a tough job but Bro Ronnie has committed himself in doing this
n making this forum even more interesting which keeps me coming back
just to see what he is recommending. He can choose to keep all these
info to himself but he has been generous to share and though i do not
know him personally but i am thankful that he is around.
3 CHEERS TO BRO RONNIE!!!
-Dudjom
Blog Review
Ronnie gives a methodology for identifying "value bets", especially on
the underdogs. The "bolametrics system" is very precise on identifying bets that have been mispriced by the bookie. His approach
has a very good chance of winning on an overall basis. There is a
market bias against the type of team he wishes to bet - very few people
are brave enough in risking $100 on the underdog to win $400, and as a result, there
is often value in this type of bet.
I have only one criticism of him, in that his system doesn't cover team news (ie. injuries, suspensions, etc).
Without this type of analysis, one cannot tell if his odds compilation has
adjusted for this.
Despite the system's disregard for team news, his work and
methodology are unique, and his blog articles are interesting. Even if
you don't plan to follow this system blindly, there is a wealth of
information in this blog that could help with other approaches to betting on soccer.
- Jarod Lo
Favorite Betting Quotes
Individual decisions can be badly thought through, and yet be successful, or exceedingly well thought through, but be unsuccessful, because the recognized possibility of failure in fact occurs. But over time, more thoughtful decision-making will lead to better overall results, and more thoughtful decision-making can be encouraged by evaluating decisions on how well they were made rather than on outcome.
--Robert Rubin, Harvard Commencement Address, 2001
Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet.
--David Sklansky, The Theory of Poker
The issue is not which horse in the race is the most likely winner, but which horse or horses are offering odds that exceed their actual chances of victory . . . This may sound elementary, and many players may think that they are following this principle, but few actually do. Under this mindset, everything but the odds fades from view. There is no such thing as "liking" a horse to win a race, only an attractive discrepancy between his chances and his price.
-Steve Crist, chairman and publisher of Daily Racing Form
The day you think you have mastered the game, you will be made to pay for it the following day. What you must do is build up a bank of experience that allows you to reduce and eliminate as far as possible the factors that make for foolish betting. In a word, you act to strict ground rules always and you endeavour to become an investor rather that a pure addictive gambler .
J.P. McManus – Legendary Irish Punter
Don’t try to become a professional in one day, or one week or even one year. It is too hard a discipline, and will crush those who do not respect its requirements. Rather, accept that you are in the midst of a journey to handicapping excellence, and that you must master many skills along the way.
-Schmidt, Hambleton, Pizzolla, Sartin
Academic Thesis on Soccer Ratings
Creating a Profitable Betting Strategy for Football by Using Statistical Modelling
Poisson Toolbox: a review of the application of the Poisson Probability Distribution in hockey
A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer
Statistical Models Applied to the Rating of Sports Teams
Revisiting Statistical Applications in Soccer
Modelling Association Football Scores
Analysis of Sports Data Using Bivariate Poisson Models
Analysis of Sports Data Using Skellam Distribution
Dynamic Rating of Sports Teams
A Bayesian Mean-Value Approach for the Ranking of Football Teams
Illusion & Betting Biases
The left orange dot seems to look smaller than the right orange dot, even though they are actually the same size. This optical illusion is created by surrounding the left orange dot with bigger blue dots, & the right orange dot with smaller blue dots. Thus, similarly, we tend to perceive that "favorites" are much stronger because they are priced by extremely low odds. Consequently, we tend to think the "underdogs" are much worse, as they are priced by much higher odds.
Both horizontal lines on the road are of equal length, even though the nearer line appears shorter. Likewise, punters tend to place different weight of importance based on the recency of information (ie. recent form, performance of latest match, etc).
The left bench seems longer than the right bench, even though they are equally long. Likewise, we can be "illusionised" when we're reading a match preview, comparing statistics or interpreting the odds. Just as how our brains can be fooled by optical illusions, we can also be fooled by such cognitive illusions. However, the interesting thing about this is that you can't look at this and immediately say, "Okay, now I'm able to see things as they really are." Fortunately though, even if we cannot escape the perception itself of the illusion, we can be aware that the illusion is happening and adjust our thinking to take the illusion into account."
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